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this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. ♪ today on the program, understanding russia. on the war in ukraine, vladamir putin said this week that his military would fight with all of their means at its disposal, but it's going to take a while. also, moscow's prisoner swap with washington. brittney griner for infamous arms dealer viktor bout. a fair trade? >> welcome home, brittney. >> i ask two of the best russian experts. and, the coup plot in germany. dozens arrested, including a german aristocrat and a former

member of parliament. mixed in allegedly are elements of qanon and a german conspiracy group that believes the state of germany is actually a corporation. what in the world is going on in deutscheland? we'll ask an expert. then, is the tide turning in iran? this week, a former iranian president called on the current regime to take a softer approach and recognize where their government has gone wrong. i talk to an iranian actress and activist about what is happening on the ground. but first, here is my take. the united states and europe find themselves in a closer alliance than at any point in many decades. france, for example, has long been the european nation most

reluctant to play junior partner in an american-led enterprise. in his first years in office, emmanuel macron describing nato as brain dead, and declaring his greatest priority to be developing europe's strategic autonomy, an autonomy he defined as something separate from the united states. contrast that with macron's remarks in november of this year, when he talked about nato as a cornerstone of french and european security. while in washington last week, he described a new goal for the continent as strategic intimacy with washington, and spoke of the need for even deeper cooperation. when the french president starts sounding like the british prime minister, it's worth paying attention, and it's not just macron. germany's olaf schulz has

sounded a call for western unity. for those wondering if germany's declared shift in policy earlier this year was a momentary reaction to russia's invasion of ukraine, he declares we are at the end of an era of peace, he underlined the creation of a $100 billion fund to upgrade the german armed forces, which he called the starkest change in german security policy since 1955. the break was so dramatic, that germany had to amend its constitution to make it possible. the tectonic shift has been triggered by the russian invasion, but it's also a response to the dawning of a new age of great power competition. a recognition that the rules-based international order built by the united states and europe, is in danger of crumbling, as countries like russia and china and others break those rules.

push for their own unilateral advantage and precipitate a return to a world where might makes right. the russian invasion explains much of this. but the biden administration deserves much credit for how it has handled that challenge. until now, washington has managed to rally large parts of the world to oppose putin's aggression, the u.s. has persuaded allies to punish russia and aid ukraine. all this has helped to create a moment of unusual western unity, which could help restore and rebuild a rules-based international system. but these successes can still be squandered by america's own unilateralism and pursuit of narrow self-interests. european leaders have been dismayed by how protectionist the biden administration has turned out to be in its economic

policy. putting buy america provisions in many of its spending bills and showering subsidies on green technology produced in the united states. all of these measures are violations of the rules governing open markets and free trade that washington has sponsored since the 1940s. france complained that the tensions are only going to grow, because europe's pain is only going to get worse. facing natural gas prices that are seven times higher and electricity prices ten times higher than in the previous two decades, many european firms are finding they simply cannot compete. the financial times reports that there is a genuine risk of the de-industrialization of germany.

auto manufacturing and other manufacturers move more factories overseas to the u.s. or china. europeans see this as rank american hypocrisy. as the pain for ordinary europeans grows and as companies move production to america, the friction will make it harder to get sustained cooperation from europe on russia and they will be less likely to take a tough and united stand on china, a market that will become increasingly vital to the continent's economic future. as europe and others start retaliating against american protectionism with their own, the open international system will start shutting down. now, when people like me raise objections to protectionism and economic nationalism, we are often dismissed as being naive about the domestic politics of this issue. democrats are doing this, so the argument goes, to help american

workers and to stem the tide of right-wing populism. the trouble with the argument is that the working class has abandoned the democratic party, largely on cultural issues. it's true elsewhere, as well. look at france, where workers are coddled, or sweden with its generous welfare and training programs. both have growing right wing populist parties, largely fueled by issues like immigration, race and education. assuming that people can be swayed from their fervently held beliefs because of a few government subsidies might be the more naive view. go to cnn.com/fareed for a link to my washington post column this week. and let's get started. ♪ on wednesday, in a meeting with russia's human rights

council, vladamir putin said of his war in ukraine, it's going to take a while. later when pressed on the use of nuclear weapons, putin said russia wouldn't brandish them like a razor, but wouldn't commit to not using them first. and said that the risk of nuclear war was rising. i wanted to talk to two people who have spent decades studying russia, and both have new books about the war. duke harding is a reporter for the guardian and his latest book is "invasion." owen matthews also joins me. they join me now. luke, let me ask you, because you've been in keherson and ukraine very recently and spent a lot of time there. what is your sense of the state of the war in this sense, which is, you always hear about the ukrainians having extraordinary morale. they're fighting for their country, for democracy, and the

russians don't know what they're fighting for. so when you've been there, this question is a testament of morale, where do you think it stands. >> i broadly agree with that. you talk to any ukrainian soldier, they all say they're fighting for their country and democracy and so on. and the russians, it's not entirely clear what it's all about. in the beginning, it was about de-nazifying ukraine, then it was about saving the donbas and the east of the country. and now putin talking about a very long war. but my sense is the ukrainians keep on surprising us. i was in kyiv on february 24th, when most people thought the ukrainian capital would fall, including the government. we've come such a long way in ten months, the point where actually ukraine has evicted russia from half the territory that it seized. and now my sense is, is we'll push forward next year and in winter, perhaps in the south,

less so in the east. but i think this is a dynamic situation, with both sides dug in for the long haul. >> owen, you have been to russia several times after the war began. what is your sense of the mood in russia? obviously, it's a little bit subjective. you're not seeing the whole country. but what is your sense? >> you're right. i see -- i've been to moscow three times, most recently there in mid-october. until mid-object. the bizarre fact of the matter is, there is no sense whatsoever that you are in the capital of a country that is fighting the biggest war of the 21st century. right up until september 21st, /was there by coincidence, when putin announced mobilization. until that moment, the war was completely invisible. deliberately so.

in the first week of the war, when i was also there, there was little bit of a wave of public patriotism, and that quickly disappeared. and the state of the russian people is essentially those who -- a small minority is in despair and for them they have run for the exits, about 500,000 by some estimates, have gone to now, you know, to -- wherever they can get to basically. but for the vast majority, they're either too poor to leave or too rich to leave. they have too much to lose. and the predominant mood among the elite members, the sort of upper middle class and government connected bureaucratic people is sort of quiet despair and denial and basically they just don't want to know. >> look, what do you think happens? you mentioned that the ukrainians are now going to push forward. but they are going to start getting to those parts of the donbas, which are really -- i

don't want to say pro-russian, but have mixed feelings. this is why russia was able to take them in 2014 so easily, as with crimea, these are largely russian speaking. many of those people thought the ukrainian government discriminated against them. by not allowing them to speak russian. "the new york times" had a good story on one of these towns which has been liberated where half the people were glad they were liberated, and half the people are apprehensive about it. >> i think it's complicated. first of all, we have to acknowledge that everyone is bilingual, everyone speaks russian in ukraine and i speak russian all the time in kyiv. it's not a problem. in 2014, the sort of russian-backed militias seized luhansk, and there was a pro-russian group, but plenty of pro-ukrainians, many were driven

out or silenced. some have left and some have stayed. listening to the mood in kyiv is pretty vehement. so many people have died. so much has been lost. almost 500 kids have been killed. cities like mariupol have been pulverized by russian aviation and by russian bombs. and there is no mood for, for, for dealing, for negotiations with putin. they're determined to liberate everything, including those areas you're talking about in the east, and it also includes crimea. i think there's going to be a really interesting point, let's say ukraine comes close to crimea. is that the point where washington, whether it's the biden administration or some other administration, phones up zelenskyy and said time to stop and settle, because the ukrainians are determined to carry on. it's a question now for the west, how far does the west back ukraine? up until the end or short of that? >> and owen, from your sense, and in your book, you spent a lot of time talking about the

kind of -- the mentality that let putin to adopt these fairly extreme views on ukraine. is it possible that putin is going to get to a point where he will be willing to negotiate? >> i think the issue for putin is that he just wants -- he is willing to throw as much at this war as it takes to not lose it. and he's -- it's very clear when you talk to people who, you know, second, third-tier people in that kremlin administration, they all assume that the west is going to lose interest. and that's not totally irrational by the way, because that's what happened before. that's the problem with this war, is putin has seen the future will be like the past. in the past, they took crimea in 2014. a year later, angela merkel was signing a $10 billion pipeline bill.

we have to take a break. we'll get back to that. but also the other big news out of russia this week, the prisoner swap with the u.s. the notorious arms dealer viktor bout for the wnba star brittney griner. who got the better deal? i'll ask the x experts when we come back. supporting 6 key indis of brain health. to help keep me sharp. neuriva: think bigger. [holiday music] ♪ for people who love their vehicles, there is only one name on their holiday list... weathertech... laser measured floorliners that fit perfectly in the front and rear... seat protector to guard against spills and messes... cargoliner, bumpstep, and no drill mudflaps to protect the exterior... and cupfone keeps phones secure and handy... [honk honk] surprise!! shop for everyone on your list with american made products at weathertech.com...

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leaving whelan behind. in exchange, the u.s. released viktor bout, a notorious arms dealer. let me bring our experts to talk about this swap. luke, what do you think? was it a -- it feels a little unbalanced. >> it was a bad deal for the u.s., unfortunately, and a good deal for russia. we're talking about a, a basketball star who was framed by their spy agency, versus a prolific arms dealer who has committed alleged crimes all over the world. i think the other sort of thing from a u.s. perspective is the precedent it sets. essentially vladamir putin believes that anything can be traded, any deal can be made. when the west talks about human rights, it's hypocritical, and it's all about power and money. and this kind of confirms the

sort of rather cynical russian view that we have something, you have something, we trade, and of course, it sets a precedent for ukraine. putin would like nothing better than to sit down with joe biden, decide the future of ukraine, decide the future of eastern and central as if it's the 19th century, with a map where they draw, you have this, i have this. and he thinks everything can be negotiated that way or it's a conspiracy. it's his classic kgb brain, and unfortunately this is an kgb moment involving alleged kgb operative who has been sitting in jail for 12 years. >> that image of them drawing up a map, that is what stalin and churchill did, they drew up a map of eastern europe and they assigned percentages of influence that russia and the u.s. would have. owen, what do you think of this situation? >> this is a hostage situation, blackmail. russia has been at it for a long time. it's classic cold war, dirty diplomacy. >> you wrote in your book,

your -- >> my father. >> your father was part of a swap. >> my mother was russian. she was only allowed out of the soviet union in 1969 after six years of trying, because she was added in the same kind of swap. 55 years have passed and nothing has changed since. that's the way the kgb men who run russia roll. >> luke, when owen is making the point that putin's strategy is to hope the west gets tired. i would say also the price pour for ordinary europeans, the energy hikes and all that, becomes unbearable. >> i just want to follow up on that and say one of putin's mistakes is that ukraine of 2022 was the ukraine of 2014, was there was a minority to russia.

now the great irony of this war is putin consolidated ukraine as a state, a nation and a people and those have melted away. and he thought the west would not do much like last time. in fact what we have seen is an unprecedented anti-kremlin coalition. despite their calculation that we the west would flake, it's been robust. we've seen a restoration of leadership under the biden administration. we've seen the germans abandoned pacifism. nato has been bolstered by the swedes and finns joining. it's been a real turning point in history. i think actually, putin, aging dictator, after two decades plus, is out of touch is reality and behind the curve as to where we are now. >> how does this end? >> i think, sadly, it ends like every other war ends, which doesn't end until total victory. there's going to be a negotiation eventually and

i acknowledge that the ukrainians have been determined to fight to the end, and fatally and dangerously for ukraine. and there comes a point where russia has actually enough manpower and weaponry just to make any further military advance incredibly bloody. that's what mark milley said. it's not the world we want to d. mark milley predicted a long, bloody stalemate. i think that's probably what is going to happen, just because o and hardware and sort of meat that they can throw into the grinder. >> we have to leave it there. we will be back. this was fascinating. thank you both. next on "gps," the headlines seemed like they were straight out of fiction. but the fact was dozens were arrested this week for allegedly plotting to overthrow the government of germany. we'll explain the story behind the headlines in a moment.

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what do three police officers, a judge, and a minor german nobleman all have in common? this week they were among 25 arrested in connection to a plot to overthrow the german government and establish a monarchy. they're suspected to be part of a movement known as the citizens of the reich. the group believes that german's government is a corporation set up by allied governments after the second world war. it's believed to have more than 24,000 followers around the country. is this a january 6th moment for

germany? joining me now is peter neumann, professor of security studies at kings college, london, and an expert on global terror. peter, let me ask you first to just explain to us who are these people and what do they believe? when we see something like this in germany, we imagine that this is, you know, the sort of neo-nazis, or this feels to me almost like babylon, berlin, that wonderful series is about to have season four preview in a week. it feels like the preview began one week early. >> yes. i think the closest comparison in an american context is probably the sovereign citizens. they're basically espousing similar beliefs. they don't believe the state really exists or it is legitimate. they produce their own passports. they refuse to pay taxes and they produce their own driving licenses.

their narrative is that basically they want to go back to monarchy. monarchy ceased to exist in germany in 1918. they want to re-create that system, because they say that every german state that has come into existence, including the third reich, the nazi government, was illegitimate. so they are far right. because they are against democracy. they want to create an authoritarian government. but they are not neatly fitting into the neo-nazi category, because they want to create a different kind of authoritarian government. >> now, to what extent does this say something about the stability of german politics that we have taken for granted? we think of germany being the most stable country in the west. unlike almost every other western country, there is no significant far-right populist movement. you know, the afd is a small party in germany. does this -- should this shatter that sense of what is going on in germany?

>> well, i think there have always been people around like this. i mean, that movement came into existence in the 1980s. it didn't, however, have a lot of followers until ten years ago. especially during the pandemic, this kind of movement took off to some extent. there has been like in america and like in a lot of other european countries, a lot of interest in conspiracy theories and people asking is the state legitimate, are we governed by a global, secretive cabal. germany has experienced that like a lot of other countries. the difference to the america i guess the center right in germany is not supporting this. it's completely against this. in that sense they don't have support from within the m

mainstream of the political system. >> and it's a fairly small movement, i think 20,000. but to what extent did they look at something like january 6th and get inspired, do we know? >> that certainly was an inspiration for them. it has to be said, they have 20,000 supporters. around 10% of the german domestic intelligence agency, around 2,000 people are supposed to be potentially violent. what's important about this movement is that in contrast to the rest of german society, they are heavily armed. they are people who are hoarding arms in the basements of their houses, waiting for day x, just like the qanon movement in america, and they've all been watching the storming of the capitol. that's what they were trying to re-create, they were essentially trying to do the same thing. now, i don't believe for one second they would have succeeded, but they would have caused a lot of damage, both to

people, but also to the trusted institutions as a consequence. >> so is this something that is more akin to qanon? slightly more visible version of qanon, and are there any connections between the two? >> well, it is, i think, quite similar in the sense that it's driven by conspiracy theorists that are so laughable, if you listen to them as an outsider, you think this can't be true, they must be nutcases. but it is a serious political movement, at least that's how they consider themselves. they are heavily armed and listening heavily to qanon. german is the most translated into language of qanon content, and you would have never thought that this would take off outside of the united states, but it did in germany. they are closely following qanon and they are trying to imitate it to some extent. >> peter, this is fascinating. thank you so much. you've really shed a lot of light on a puzzling, bizarre story.

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think these announced executions and the actual execution do to the situation on the ground? >> people are outraged, fareed. there's a popular slogan, for every person is killed, a thousand people will rise up behind them. that's why we have seen these protests last for three months now and there's no sign of slowing down. so every image, every report that we're hearing and seeing of people being executed wrongfully killed is basically galvanizing iranian society at large to protest the government. >> is the government making any concessions? because we heard about the disbanding of the morality police. but that actually turns out to be something of a red herring, right? >> that's exactly right. it wasn't a legal edict. it was something that was just floated by an official that had no real purview or jurisdiction to make that call.

it should be something that the ministry of interior is deciding on, and there have been no changes inside iran. it came at a time conveniently for the regime just before the nationwide strikes that were taking place and also a call for the islamic republic to be expelled from the united nations. so these things seem to be somewhat strategic but haphazard at the same time. >> do you get the sense there might be splits in the regime in the last time in iran when the green movement came into being around that contested election, there were reformist members of the government, of the regime, who seem to be calling for, you know, they seemed to be breaking with the regime. could you imagine that somebody like the former president who was regarded as a reformist, or zarif, the former foreign minister, who's regarded as a

moderate, do you think these people might peel off, or they're all in this struggle for survive altogether? >> i think the latter, fareed. i think we've now had a 43-year case study on the islamic republic. the slogans on the streets say it best, the people are saying they want this regime gone. and frankly, i think the statements by the former president where he said that a change in this system is neither possible nor desirable goes against everything the protestors are demanding. so there's not just a disillusionment with the reformist movement, there's an actual animosity towards them for perpetuating the regime and the brutalities that exist today. >> a new book out that tries to examine when do dictatorships fall. one of the points it makes is one of the central conclusions is that regimes come to power through revolution are the hardest to dislodge, because i

suppose they kind of know -- they know what to do in terms of a mixture of repression and opening up some escape valves here and there, and exiling dissidents. so when you think about that and you think about this regime that has so much control and has been around for 43 years, is it realistic to think that these protests could actually snowball into something much, much bigger and much more deadly? >> that's a very valid question, fareed. i think no popular uprising of our time has been predicted accurately. and that's possibly because human behavior is unpredictable. in a situation like this, it's very easy to liken it to the arab spring and the outcomes there, or sri lanka perhaps. but i would encourage a little bit less cynicism, and maybe what we can strive for in support of this movement, because the margin between success and failure is very slim. we as the international community i think have that

ability to tip the scale in the favor of the protesters and the pro-democracy and freedom in a similar way we did for south africa. if you look at the david and goliath revolutions, we have to have that hope and keep hope alive for the protesters. >> what do you want the west in particular to do? >> i think what we can do is -- i think in the words of michael mcfaul, former u.s. ambassador to russia, he said it was an arms controller who ended the fall of the soviet union, it was freedom fighters, basically of soviet states. and in iran, it won't be american diplomats or western diplomats who cause an end to the cold war with iran, it will be the small d democrats on the

ground in iran. so our job is to empower the small d democrats inside iran to achieve self-determination. >> and do that by? >> there are a number of ways. i think the human rights council session was a very good first step. strategic sanctions have to continue. my hope is we sanction the supreme leader, we haven't done that yet, and there are a number of other ways. why are these children of these regime officials living freely and comfortably in democratic countries, while people who need refuge in the west don't get the same? so we have to make a clear distinction of who we're supporting, and stop supporting and empowering the regime in that way, and start empowering civil society in iran through internet access and things like that. >> fascinating to hear you, and you have extraordinary courage to be doing this. >> thank you. >> thank you for being here.

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and now for the last note. remember that idea of herd immunity? at the beginning of the pandemic, anti-lockdown voices wanted to let the virus run free. they argued the population would build so much immunity that covid would stop spreading and life could go back to normal. it was a reckless idea at the time, when there were no vaccines or good treatments. but today, most countries have built up protection through a combination of vaccination and exposure. it isn't exactly herd immunity,

but it's enough that the virus, while still spreading, doesn't pose a colossal threat to the population. in china, however, the situation is totally different. tough and effective covid restrictions have kept people from getting sick. but as a result, also from acquiring natural immunity. there isn't enough protection from vaccines either, particularly among older people. and now, after a stunning wave of protests, china is suddenly loosening its restrictive covid policies. this could get very dangerous. if china completely ends its zero covid policy, "the economist" estimates the country would hit 45 million new daily infections after just one month. virtually everyone would get infected. 680,000 people would die, assuming enough icu beds for

everyone, which there definitely are not. another model reviewed by the ft, predicts 1 million deaths. others go higher to 1.6 million or 1.7 million dead. now, it may not get that bad if china reopens gradually and uses masks and vaccines to gradually flatten the curve. but just to put this in context and china's figures can't be completely trusted, china has reported a few thousand covid deaths over the whole pandemic. within months, it could rival america's death toll of 1 million. the big question is, why china stuck to the testing and lockdown strategy for so long while the rest of the world moved on? one off-sided reason is vaccine nationalism. two doses of western vaccine are far superior the two doses of the chinese vaccine. which uses old technology, yet xi jinping is too proud to

import western vaccines. so he's been playing for time while china could develop its own mrna formula. but that's not the whole story. chinese vaccines are hardly useless. in fact, a study in hong kong early in the omicron wave found that three doses gave full protection against severe disease. but getting the whole population up to three doses would require a major vaccine push. and china's zero covid strategy was so extensive that it sapped the state's resources for vaccinating the population. mass testing carried an astounding cost of nearly 1.5% gdp. china ran quarantine facilities rather than letting people quarantine at home. another problem has been vaccine hesitancy, particularly with older people. despite its authoritarianism china did not follow western nations in mandating shots.

local officials in beijing floated a mandate and quickly dropped it after a backlash. senior citizens have partly resisted vaccines because of past scandals of tainted vaccines and drugs, and with a zero covid policy in place, they worried more about side effects from the vaccine than contracting the virus. plus, in the west, the vaccines were seen as the way to end lockdowns. in china, there was no sense that vaccination was a ticket to freedom. as the zero covid policy has been lifted, the government is making a renewed vaccination push. immunity isn't china's only issue. i mentioned icus. in the event of uncontrolled spread, china would need 7 to 16 times the number of existing icu beds to accommodate the peak number of patients. the country doesn't have enough supplies of anti-viral drugs and rushing to increase stockpiles of those.

the whole point of the lockdowns at the start of the pandemic was to buy time, to fortify and the medical system and vaccinate the population. xi jinping bought oodles of time, but he squandered it. alas, the chinese people will pay the price. that's it for this week. thanks to all of you for being part of my program. i will see you next week. this whole thing wouldn't be a thing. yeah, dad! i don't want to deal with this. oh, you brought your luggage to the airport. that's adorable. with shipgo shipping your luggage before you fly you'll never have to wait around here again. like ever. that can't be comfortable though. shipgo.com the smart, fast, easy way to travel. (pensive music) (footsteps crunching) (pensive music) (birds tweeting)

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